Saturday Night at the MGM Grand the WBC Super Featherweight Title is at stake as champion Erik "El Terrible" Morales puts it on the line once again versus his arch-nemesis Marco Antonio Barrera. The bad blood in this matchup goes beyond being elite fighters duking it out for ring supremancy, as you will hear time over time in the telecasts and news reports Barerra is from middle class Mexico City and Morales hails from hardscrabble Tijuana. These two, it would seem, were born rivals.
By now most of you are aware that the two gladiators have split a couple of Vegas Decisions, so rather than re-hash what you have already read this morning I'm going to cut right to the chase: Who is going to win, and why.

Erik Morales 47-1 34KO: The Good
Growing Into It - Morales is 5'8 and has a 72 inch reach, that's an inch in height and two inches in reach over light heavyweight contender Montell Griffin. I think it's safe to say that Morales was a little gaunt at 122, or 126. Going up to 130 doesn't make him a beefy guy, but should help in his ability to absorb punches effectively & to eke out a little more energy in the championship rounds.

Hand Speed - In a match this even there are precious few advantages to be found, but Morales owns the most obvious one. His hands are much quicker than Barrera's. Both fighters will be willing to trade in volume, as they have been in 24 previous rounds, and as was the case in the first two contests Morales will get to the target quicker. If his punches are heavier at 130 this could be a major factor.

Chin - Morales can be hurt. Barrera has certainly shown that already as has Guty Espadas, Injin Chi, and most recently Carlos Hernandez. Morales though, recovers phenomenally quick. His chin is a bend-but-don't-break model and any opponent who sees Morales wobble should take their foot off of the gas. Rushing what appears to be a hurt Morales can cause a lot more problems than it solves.

Uncle Mo - (Momentum) Morales is on a major roll, beginning with his first career loss back in June of 2002 in the second matchup with Barrera. The media and fans were solidly behind Barrera leading up to the fight but Morales battled every step of the way in a fight he was supposed to lose but some fans thought he won before the judges got involved. Since then he has ripped off 6 straight wins with victories over relatively stiff competition(OK, in one case it actually WAS a stiff), and Morales has begun to assume Barrera's previously lofty perch on pound for pound lists.

The Other Uncle Mo - (Motivation) This three fight series has always been packaged up as a grudge match, but it has always seemed a bit more venomous for Morales. Barrera plays his role well, and seems to genuinely dislike his Tijuanan counterpart but Morales' anger seem more vibrant, more hateful. By the third go-round fighters have usually carved out a bit of respect for one another. It still doesn't seem to be the case here.

Erik Morales: The Bad
Overexcitement - Morales loves to fight. And loves to fight Barrera even more. He has always invited Barrera to exchange, to mixed results, and it'll be important to remember that Barerra is the heavier puncher - and he is moving up in weight too. We'll see if there is a power difference within the first round, but Morales should guard against finding out the hard way.

Battle Worn - Morales is a winner, there is no question about it. He also has a history of taking the bumpiest path. It's a pattern that has historically shortened careers. Drawn out 12 round shootouts with Barrera, Espadas, Chi, Ayala, Chavez, and Hernandez might not appear particularly damaging one at a time but Morales has had more tough fights in the last few years than most fighters do in a 10 year career.

Offensive Reliance - There are a few fighters in boxing; Diego Corrales, Arturo Gatti & Felix Trinidad to name some of the elite - who eschew defense because of their steadfast belief in their offensive ability. Morales also belongs in this group. To some of these types of fighters defense is there as a necessary component of boxing, but really gets in the way of what they are trying to do. Morales wants to let his hands go - all of the time - and it makes him easy to hit if you are willing to stand close to the fire.

Marco Antonio Barrera 58-4 41KO: The Good
Comeback Kid - After a firmly successful beginning of 43-0 Barrera was tossed on boxing's scrap heap after losing twice to good but not great Junior Jones back in 1996 & 1997. Most experts and fans expected Morales, the newest undefeated Mexican phenom, to take Barrera out in a spirited but short-lived contest. Barrera lost the decision, but came out with his reputation restored. He then moved up in weight for what was supposed to be a valiant losing effort to Naseem Hamed but upset the apple cart by easily outpointing the unorthodox Brit. Now a year removed from a one sided stoppage loss to Manny Pacquiao and off every pound for pound list Barrera saddles up again as the has-been taking on the tiger once again. He's already proven to himself that he can shake the dust off.

Body Work - Nobody in boxing has as intense a focus on breaking down the body than Marco Antonio Barrera. We have seen Toney break down Holyfield with it, seen Trinidad finally chop Mayorga to his knees with it, seen Hopkins cut DeLaHoya's dream short with it, seen Gatti take a single opening and end Leo Dorin's night with it - and none of these guys throw a left hook to the body with the same ferocity and regularity that Barrera does. If one punch in this fight changes the story I'll take my chances with Marco Antonio via left hook to the liver.

Righty/Righty - It has been two years since Barrera has fought a right handed fighter. Ayala, Pacquiao, and Kevin Kelley were all south-siders and I can assure you that not facing another lefty is just fine with Barrera right now. Getting back to fighting right handers won't be easy for Marco Antonio, but it will be a bit more comfortable. In his loss to Pacquiao and his win over Ayala it was clear that straight left hands bothered or worried him, or both. Though Morales throws punches with the same straight and quick path as Manny they will be far easier to see coming, and therefore better counterpunching opportunities should present themselves.

Heavy Hands - Although Morales has a slightly higher knockout percentage (72% compared to Barrera's 70%) Barrera is the more effective one-punch fighter. Several times over the course of the two marathon battles that these two have already waged with one another it has been Barrera who has wobbled Morales more than the other way around. When combined with the miles that Morales has put on his chin and body I don't think it's safe or smart to think that Barrera wouldn't be able to change the fight at any given moment.

Plan Ahead - Barrera can gameplan this fight and win it. The question is whether or not he can be across the ring from Morales and stick to it. Barrera, along with the help of trainer Rudy Perez, put together a lock-tight gameplan for Hamed & stayed smart against Ayala and Tapia.
They also looked to have Morales figured out in the second match until Barrera gave in to the urge and spent the second half of the fight in an ill advised slug-fest.

Marco Antonio Barrera: The Bad
KO Prone - I hate to say this about a guy whom I hold so much respect for, but Barrera can be had. Now more than ever. I have had conversations with several ring doctors who have all told me the same thing; with each concussive incident the times between concussions are likely to grow shorter. Meaning simply "The more you get knocked out, the more likely you are to get knocked out again." Barrera took a horrendous beating from Pacquiao.

Self Image - Barrera's stock has dropped. Just over a year ago Marco Antonio was near the top of every pound for pound list. His newfound technical style was looked at oddly for a moment and then accepted universally, giving birth to a new Barrera that was considered a refined version of the old one. Now Barrera is back on the scrap heap, and although he is mentally tough enough to get through it, this type of fall from grace does come with a psychological cost.

Weight a Minute - Truthfully I would never had considered this much of an issue, until Barrera himself brought it up. Barrera has alluded to an advantage for Morales at 130 pounds based on body type and height, going as far as to say that he will be dropping back to 126 after the fight. Though I can certainly understand how a person who stands 5'8 (Morales) would be worse off at 122 It's difficult for me to think of how someone 5'6 couldn't find use for 130 pounds, as it stands Barrera is taller than some of the division's elite fighters.

The Call:
Both fighters will be anxious to begin and put this trilogy to bed for good. The bad blood and physical abuse that these men have swapped over the past 4 years has forged a grudging respect, if not for the person at least for the competitor.
Morales will come out hard at the opening bell, hands raised up and in front and he will take a few moments to see which Barrera he has in the ring with him, the brawler or the boxer. My expectation is to see Barrera open the fight in similar fashion as the last time they shared the ring, plenty of side to side movement and flashing out his stinging jab as Morales gives chase. The first round will likely be scored for Morales with neither man getting in many good shots, but "El Terible" gets the nod for pushing the action. The second round will begin the same way with Barrera stopping occasionally to push out a straight right or lunge in with a left hook to the body. At the same time Morales will begin to find his distance and will take the second round with a much higher workrate, aggression, and stinging power shots to the head and body.
The third round will see the first sustained action of the fight. Both men will open up and land hard shots throughout the round. Barrera will be noticably flinchy when the two are trading shots in close quarters and will sometimes appear to be ducking out of the way of punches that aren't even thrown. Morales' power at 130 will begin to get to him and by the end of the third round Morales will be consistently throwing hard right hands over Barrera's jab without fear. The fourth and fifth rounds will be fought at a slowdown pace for both fighters after the nearly frantic third. Morales will still be walking Barrera down and taking the rounds with his advantage in speed but for the most part we'll see some effective jabbing and lunging power shots that aren't finding the mark as both men prepare for the stretch run.
The sixth and seventh rounds will be filled with equal exchanges and Barrera will be sticking to his gameplan of bodywork, but somewhere in the mix I expect to see Morales break through with a barrage and put Barrera on his seat. Though he doesn't appear to be hurt and will easily beat the count the writing will be on the wall and by the end of the seventh it will be clear that Barrera needs something dramatic to happen in order to pull out a win.
Rounds eight through ten will see Barrera pick up his activity level and amount of power shots, but with every punch Barrera throws it will seem that Morales is answering with better punches. Erik's confidence will be through the roof, his jab will be snapping Marco Antonio's head back and the right hand will continue to whistle over Barrera's jab and find home on the chin. Barrera at this point will look deflated and accepting of his defeat, content to pack it in and finish the fight on his feet as Morales cruises to the first, and last, clear victory in this series by scores in the ranged of 118-109.

Bits & Pieces:

Vegas and The MGM Grand - Marco Antonio Barrera is 4-0 at the MGM and has seen his biggest victories come in this building. His wins over Hamed, Morales, Tapia, and Kevin Kelley were held at the Casino. Overall Barrera is 9-2 in Vegas with the losses being to Morales at the Mandalay Bay, and Junior Jones at the Hilton.
Morales is 3-1 in the MGM Arena with wins over Carlos Hernandez, Jesus Chavez, and Guty Espadas Jr. with the lone loss coming to Barrera. Overall Morales is 13-1 in Sin City.

The Totals - After two fights the averaged judges score for the fighters leans slightly in favor of Barerra: 114.17 to 113.33

In Common - Morales & Barrera share 4 common opponents. Morales knocked Kelley out in 7, Barerra took out a worse-for-wear version out in 4. Paulie Ayala lost to Morales by clear unanimous decision while Barrera stopped Paulie in the 10th. Both fought Eddie Croft. Morales beat a retired Croft up for three rounds, while Barrera broke down Croft over 7 heats. Last but not least is Junior Jones. Morales made it look easy, giving Jones his second consectutive 4th round TKO loss(the other to Kennedy McKinney). Barrera was less fortunate against Jones, collecting half of his career losses against the Brooklynite in a span of just 5 months. The first fight was ruled a DQ, but in truth was a TKO. The second was a close and relatively exciting fight that Barrera dropped by decision.

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