Gambler's Corner: Manny Pacquiao vs Erik Morales
John Chavez - 3/15/2005
Oh what a dilemma we have for this weekend. A gambler must know when
to stay away from certain fights and this fight happens to be one of
them. The odds are tight for a reason as it could easily end
up being a one-sided domination by either guy.
The reason this fight is extremely difficult to call is the unpredictability and variables involved going into this fight. More of the variables have to do with Erik Morales than Manny Pacquiao. We know what Pacman bring's to the table. He brings a nice jab, quick footwork,
solid chin, and a very straight destructive left hand. With Pacman
it's either all offense or all defense, no such thing as
counter-punching, just exchanges. On the other hand Morales brings an
array of styles to the table. He can adopt the Mexican high-guard look
and throw shots from long range, or he can pick you apart on the
inside as he did to the Texican, Paulie Ayala. Sometimes he'll come
out flat like he did against MAB in their recent fight and in other's
he'll come out guns a blazing as he did against Espadas in their second
fight.
The first variable of concern the fact that it was a rather
grueling fight Morales had in November as MAB proceeded to bust him up
pretty good. While I'm of the belief that Erik's ego is hurt more than
the physical toll the fight took on him, you never can really tell.
Another variable that's going around is that nasty rumor that Erik's
been on that Yayo (Cocaine) for some time. Yayo can definitely lessens a guy's ability to take sustained punishment. Hopefully, it's just a rumor or habit that's been blown out of proportion by the media. Who doesn't enjoy the feeling of downing a dozen Tecate's and snorting a rail of blow? You gotta be crazy NOT to luv the feeling.
Obviously last but not least will be Erik's mentality going into this fight and whether he'll get caught up in a brawl that will definitely leave him on the short end of the stick. For all the brawling that Erik does, he RARELY gets the best of it. For some reason, he sure can take a beating but he doesn't do well in brawl type exchanges in my eyes. He lacks the firepower, short compact punching, and speed to win those exchanges. The thing with Erik is that he is not avert to getting touched so he
should have no problem standing in front of Pacman with his right hand
glued to his face to deflect that left missile while keeping that jab
pumping.
My official pick for this fight can have me looking like a
complete fool or a genius because of the variables I described. My
official pick is that the fight will go 12 rounds. I hate making this
type of bet on this particular fight since it detracts from my ability
to enjoy a war. In betting the over, you don't want anybody to get
seriously hurt and would like a rather slow-paced fight. If Pacman
comes out guns-a blazing and Morales obliges him by just throwing
caution to the wind and attempting to brawl with the Filipino, the
night could end short. More so in my eyes from the massive amount of
swelling or cuts that would form rather than Erik getting KO'ed. When
Erik attempted to brawl with Barrera, Injin Chi, and Guty Espadas, all
guys who don't have the punch delivery and velocity of Pacman, he
still ended up getting the worse of exchanges.
Pacman should be able to bust him up bad early. I still see this fight going the distance because of the fact that these are both TRU feather-weights that have chins of granite and I believe overrated power. If it took 11 rounds for Pacman to put away an unfocused and out of shape Barrera I highly doubt he puts away an in-shape and determined Morales. I'm of the belief that Morales would NOT have gone down from the same shots that put Marquez down 3 times in their fight. I don't think Morales has a chance in hell to put away Pacquio since Pacman's high guard when he's not punching gives little room to catch him clean. Added to the fact that Marquez caught Pacquiao with a monster right hand in the 7th round of their fight and it didn't do much to the Filipino. Watch it all go down ala Hagler-Hearns and end before it even reaches half-time.
Whatever. With a bank roll of $1000 and the current
distance line at +110, this gambler will wage $200 on it going the
distance to win $220. I wish I could just stay away from touching this
fight and just enjoy it but my compulsive behavior just won't allow
it.
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